New national polling shows how the latest round of counter-tariffs has scrambled Canada's political mood — and left Pierre Poilievre searching for a way back.
A fresh “Trump Bump” has widened the federal Liberal Party’s vote intention lead over the Conservatives to 14 points, according to national polling released on September 10, 2026, as Canadians absorb the latest round of counter-tariffs that took effect on September 8. Forty-six per cent of decided and leaning voters say they would back the Liberals if an election were held today, against 32 per cent for the Conservative Party of Canada — a gap that stood at just four points in July.
The non-profit Angus Reid Institute surveyed 1,811 Canadian adults between September 2 and 7, 2026, in the weeks between an escalating exchange of tariffs and counter-tariffs with Washington and the opening of the fall parliamentary session on September 21. The same data set shows Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval rating at 61 per cent, nearly double the 32 per cent of Canadians who hold a favourable view of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
The findings sketch a familiar but sharpening pattern in Canadian political life: when the conflict with U.S. President Donald Trump intensifies, so does support for the government sitting across the negotiating table — even as the economic cost of that conflict lands on households and businesses.
Why the Sept. 8 Counter-Tariffs Reset the Political Mood
The polling window closed days before the newest counter-tariffs came into force, capturing public opinion at the moment of anticipation rather than impact. Weeks of tariffs, counter-tariffs and counter-counter-tariffs between Ottawa and Washington have made one outcome close to certain if the standoff persists: higher prices on both sides of the border.
Carney was elected largely on the argument that he was the leader best equipped to manage Trump. The tracking data behind this release shows his personal appeal rising in step with the prominence of the tariff file — a direct link between the trade file’s salience and the government’s standing.
Public sentiment, however, is not the same as economic reality. The trade war is expected to test Canadians’ resolve as prices climb and firms adjust to a changed operating environment that, for some, poses an existential threat. Canadian lenders have so far struck a steady tone about credit conditions; earlier reporting on how bank CEOs have framed their credit outlook through the trade war shows how cautiously the financial sector is describing the same environment voters are reacting to.
Where the 14-Point Liberal Vote Intention Lead Is Concentrated
The 14-point spread is the largest recorded since the current tracking period began. Support for the NDP, Bloc Québécois and Green Party has held comparatively stable across the same months, meaning the movement is largely a story of two parties trading position.
Regionally, the Liberals now lead across most of the country:
- Ontario: a 16-point Liberal advantage over the Conservatives.
- Quebec: a 28-point Liberal advantage over the Bloc Québécois, its nearest rival in the province.
- Alberta and Saskatchewan: the Conservatives retain majority support.
Two other factors sit behind the late-summer surge. The Liberals swept three by-elections in the closing weeks of summer, and the party heads into the September 21 sitting with momentum that its own strategists did not have in July. The vote intention figures are drawn from 1,609 decided and leaning voters within the larger sample.
Cost of Living Still Outranks Tariffs as Canadians’ Top Concern
For all the attention on the border, the cost of living and inflation remain the dominant public concern, unchanged at the top of the list. Tariffs themselves are named by 27 per cent, the economy broadly by 24 per cent, and housing affordability by 21 per cent. Health care completes the top five.
Voters of all four major parties put inflation first, then diverge sharply:
- Health care: selected by 44 per cent of 2025 Liberal voters, 41 per cent of NDP voters and 37 per cent of Bloc voters, versus 27 per cent of Conservative voters.
- Conservative priorities: spread across the economy (32 per cent), immigration (27 per cent), taxes (25 per cent) and government spending (25 per cent).
- U.S. relations: a higher concern for past Liberal (39 per cent) and Bloc (32 per cent) voters than for others.
- Climate change: most pressing for past NDP voters, at 41 per cent.
Age and geography also shape the list. Younger Canadians are more focused on jobs and unemployment, while older Canadians are far more likely to name health care and relations with the United States. Quebecers, facing a provincial election, are the most likely to worry about American tariffs (32 per cent); Albertans, with referendums approaching, are the most likely to name immigration (24 per cent).
That inflation-first ranking is consistent with what household balance sheets show elsewhere in the country. Survey work on how B.C. household savings have slid as financial resilience erodes illustrates why price pressure keeps outranking geopolitics for many voters, and why the Bank of Canada’s extended rate hold remains a live household issue rather than an abstract policy question.
NDP and Bloc Defectors Are Padding the Liberal Column
Both major parties are holding roughly four in five of the voters who backed them in the 2025 election, so the Liberal lead is not being built by peeling off Conservatives. It is being built at the expense of the smaller parties.
Thirty-one per cent of past NDP voters and 21 per cent of past Bloc Québécois voters now say they would vote Liberal. Few in either group are moving to the Conservatives, which is the structural problem the CPC has yet to solve: its own base is intact, but the pool of available switchers is flowing in one direction.
Carney at 61% Approval, Poilievre at a New Low of 32%
The leadership numbers are starker than the party numbers. Throughout 2026, a consistent three in five Canadians have said they view Poilievre unfavourably. The 32 per cent who view him positively marks a new low across four years of tracking.
The gap between the two leaders appears across every demographic group, and is widest among Canadians older than 54. Seventy-three per cent of men over 54 and 80 per cent of women over 54 approve of Carney’s performance as prime minister — figures that more than double and quadruple, respectively, the share in those cohorts with a positive view of Poilievre.
The Conservatives’ messaging difficulty predates this poll. During the 2025 campaign, the party had to pivot away from its “Canada is broken” framing at a moment of renewed patriotism triggered by American threats. The CPC went on to win its highest popular vote share since the 1980s and still finished behind Carney’s “Elbows Up” Liberals.
Poilievre’s Unsolved Problem With Women Voters
One number has barely moved in four years. At no point during Poilievre’s leadership have more than 31 per cent of Canadian women reported a favourable view of him, and that figure now sits at 27 per cent.
For a period, weaker standing among women was offset by stronger numbers among men. Over time, men’s views have drifted closer to women’s, removing that cushion. The problem also looks older than the current leadership: in August 2025, a majority of women (53 per cent) told the institute the Conservative Party “does not represent people like me” — nearly identical to the 54 per cent recorded in December 2019.
What 2025 Conservative Voters Say About Staying the Course
Among the 569 respondents who voted Conservative in 2025, the verdict on their leader is more supportive than the national picture suggests, but it is not unqualified:
- Satisfaction with Poilievre’s post-election performance: 67 per cent are satisfied, while 28 per cent say expectations have not been met.
- Newer versus longtime supporters: those who voted CPC in 2025 but not in 2021 express more dissatisfaction (41 per cent) than two-time CPC voters (23 per cent).
- Ideological direction: 58 per cent want the party to maintain its current approach, with a minority preferring a move further right or left.
- The trade-off question: when framed as changing to win government versus standing pat and possibly losing again, half say they would accept “big changes” to the party.
- Leadership: 57 per cent believe Poilievre should lead the party into the next election, while one-quarter want him replaced — a split that has held steady since December.
Positioning is part of the puzzle. Carney has shifted the Liberals rightward and reversed a number of Trudeau-era policies the Conservatives had campaigned against, narrowing the ground the opposition once occupied. Poilievre’s internal mandate, meanwhile, remains formally strong: he secured 87.4 per cent approval from delegates at the Conservative national convention in Calgary in January.
How the Angus Reid Institute Conducted the Survey
The online survey ran from September 2 to 7, 2026, among a randomized sample of 1,811 Canadian adults drawn from the Angus Reid Forum, a panel built to include residents of all 343 federal ridings and to reflect the population by age, gender, family income, ethnic status and education.
Results were weighted to national adult benchmarks by region, gender, age, household income and education using census data. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of that size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by the institute, and full data tables, the questionnaire and the detailed report were published alongside the release. Discrepancies in totals reflect rounding.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does “Trump Bump” mean in this context?
It refers to the pattern in which support for the Canadian government rises when confrontation with the U.S. administration escalates, as the governing party is seen as the one managing the file.
Is the 14-point gap measured among all respondents?
No. Vote intention is calculated among the 1,609 decided and leaning voters in the sample, while approval and issue questions use the full 1,811 adults.
Does the poll capture reaction to the counter-tariffs that took effect Sept. 8?
Only in anticipation. Fieldwork closed on September 7, so the results reflect how Canadians felt heading into the measures, not their experience of the resulting price effects.
Why is the margin of error described as “for comparison purposes only”?
The sample is drawn from an online panel rather than a pure probability sample, so the figure is offered as a benchmark of precision rather than a strict statistical guarantee.
