New national polling shows a public that is more willing to absorb economic pain than to soften its position — and in no hurry to get back to the negotiating table.
Weeks after Canada-U.S. trade talks broke down over a set of late American demands, national polling released on September 7, 2026 suggests the collapse has hardened rather than rattled Canadian public opinion. Among 1,495 Canadian adults surveyed online on September 3 and 4, 73 per cent said Canada should refuse difficult concessions even if that means the relationship with Washington deteriorates further — the highest share recorded for a “hard” approach since the dispute began.
The same survey found Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval rating up 11 points from August to 62 per cent, with majority approval in every province except Saskatchewan. Yet Canadians are far less confident about the country’s actual leverage: only 31 per cent describe Canada’s negotiating position as strong, while 34 per cent call it weak.
The Headline Numbers From the September Survey
| 62% | Approve of Carney’s performance as prime minister (up 11 points from August) |
| 73% | Say Canada should refuse difficult concessions to the United States |
| 43% | Would accept only a deal that removes tariffs on Canadian vehicles entirely |
| 41% | Would wait until after the U.S. midterm elections to return to the table |
| 60% | Would stay the course even if household expenses rose 20 per cent |
| 36% | Support their own province selling American alcohol |
Why Walking Away Lifted Carney to 62 Per Cent
The approval jump follows August’s rupture, when negotiations fell apart over last-minute U.S. demands. Rapid-reaction polling at the time found three-quarters of Canadians believed Carney was right to leave the table rather than accept the revised terms.
At 62 per cent, his current standing sits just below the 63 per cent record measured earlier in 2026 after his Davos speech. The pattern is familiar to anyone who has followed the political arithmetic of this trade fight: confrontation with Washington has repeatedly moved numbers in the government’s favour, a dynamic also visible when a so-called “Trump bump” lifted the Liberals to a 14-point vote-intention lead over the Conservatives.
Regional support is broad rather than concentrated. Saskatchewan is the lone province where approval falls short of a majority, according to the survey.
A Public That Doubts Its Own Leverage
Confidence in Canada’s hand is thinner than the appetite for resistance. Roughly equal groups say the country’s negotiating position is strong (31 per cent) or weak (34 per cent), while 22 per cent see the two countries as evenly matched.
Past vote is the sharpest dividing line. Three in five 2025 Conservative voters say the United States holds the upper hand, while half of past Liberal voters (50 per cent) reject that assessment. That gap matters politically, because it separates a bloc that reads the standoff as a costly stalemate from one that reads it as a defensible stand.
Inside the 73 Per Cent Who Would Refuse Concessions in Canada-U.S. Trade Talks
Uncertainty about leverage has not translated into flexibility. Against the 73 per cent who favour holding firm, 27 per cent would prefer Canada soften its stance — and a majority in every province lands on the hard side of that question.
The partisan spread is wide:
- Past Conservative voters: split almost evenly, 51 per cent hard and 49 per cent soft.
- Past Liberal voters: only 8 per cent favour concessions.
- Past NDP voters: 12 per cent favour concessions.
- Past Bloc Québécois voters: 18 per cent favour concessions.
In other words, the softer position is now largely a Conservative-leaning view, and even there it commands only half the party’s 2025 coalition.
American Alcohol and Dairy Access: Two Concessions Voters Won’t Give
Provincial bans on U.S. alcohol sales have been a persistent irritant for American negotiators, and by reported accounts Carney urged premiers to return American products to liquor store shelves during the negotiation window. The survey suggests that step would have carried a cost at home: just 36 per cent of Canadians support their province selling U.S. alcohol.
Supply management is the other locked door. Canadians oppose loosening the rules on American dairy access by a two-to-one margin — this after President Donald Trump claimed, before talks collapsed, that tariffs on American farm goods were “going to be eviscerated down to zero.”
Both findings point to something broader than trade policy preference. Boycotts, shelf decisions and buy-Canadian purchasing have become the everyday expression of this dispute, and the numbers suggest that consumer nationalism is now embedded rather than fading.
Auto Tariffs: A Plurality Wants Them Gone, Not Trimmed
In the round of talks that failed, tariffs on Canadian vehicles were set to drop to 15 per cent, with disagreement reportedly centred on which vehicle categories would qualify for relief.
Canadians are not sold on partial relief. A plurality of 43 per cent say Canada should accept only an agreement that removes vehicle tariffs entirely, outnumbering the 31 per cent who would accept a deal that merely reduces them. For an auto sector concentrated in southern Ontario, that sets a demanding public benchmark for what counts as a win.
How Much Economic Pain Canadians Say They Would Absorb
The survey tested resolve against specific costs, and tolerance held up further than might be expected:
- Household costs up 20 per cent: 60 per cent would still stay the course.
- A recession or local small-business closures: about half would hold the line.
- Major factories leaving Canada or personal job loss: support falls but remains at plurality level.
Stated willingness is not the same as lived experience, of course. Earlier polling in this dispute found two in five Canadians fearful for their own jobs, and financial strain is already showing up in the data — from eroding household savings in British Columbia to the credit-quality questions now facing lenders. Bank executives have so far held their credit outlook firm through the trade war, but the gap between survey resolve and balance-sheet reality is the pressure point to watch.
Waiting for the U.S. Midterms Before Returning to the Table
Carney has said Canada is prepared to resume negotiations “when the Americans are ready.” The public is in less of a hurry. A plurality — 41 per cent — say Canada should wait until after the U.S. midterm elections, on the theory that a weaker Republican position in Congress would increase pressure on the president.
One-quarter (26 per cent), including half of past Conservative voters, want talks restarted immediately. Fewer than one in five (18 per cent) would wait beyond November, a group that includes 13 per cent who think Canada should hold out until Trump is scheduled to leave office in 2029.
That distribution gives Ottawa unusual room to manoeuvre on timing: delay currently carries less political risk than a rushed settlement.
What Consumer Nationalism Means for Brands Operating in Canada
General market context: for marketers and retailers, the practical signal in this data is not the top-line approval figure but the durability of the sentiment underneath it. When only about a third of consumers endorse their province even stocking American alcohol, country-of-origin has moved from a labelling detail to a purchase consideration.
Three implications follow for Canadian brand teams, framed as broader industry context rather than findings from this survey:
- Origin claims carry weight: Canadian sourcing and manufacturing messaging is landing with an audience that has already changed its habits.
- Neutral is safer than performative: patriotism used opportunistically invites scrutiny, especially from consumers tracking supply chains closely.
- Plan for a long tail: with a plurality content to wait out the U.S. election cycle, purchasing patterns shaped by the dispute may outlast the tariffs themselves.
The Sample Behind the Numbers
The online survey ran September 3 to 4, 2026 among a randomized sample drawn from a large national online panel built to include residents of all 343 federal ridings. Reported sample sizes are 1,498 adults for the approval question and 1,495 for the trade questions.
Results were weighted to be representative of Canadian adults by region, gender, age, household income and education using census benchmarks. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of that size would carry a margin of error of roughly plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20; the study was self-commissioned and paid for by the polling organization. Small discrepancies in totals reflect rounding.
The next measurable checkpoint is the November U.S. midterms — the moment a plurality of Canadians have identified as the right time to test whether the hard line has actually bought the country a better deal.
