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Statistics Canada Research Findings: Population Growth Slows

Statistics Canada Research Findings: Population Growth Slows

by Brand Magazine Newsroom
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A single week of federal data releases lands on slowing population growth, $1,347 weekly earnings, rising housing dissatisfaction, wastewater drug signals and business succession plans.

The latest batch of Statistics Canada research findings, published in the agency’s weekly roundup on September 25, 2026, sketches a country growing more slowly than at any point in more than a century while households wrestle with affordability, environmental habits and, in the case of business owners, whether to sell at all. The week’s releases ran from September 21 to 25 and covered population estimates, payroll earnings, housing costs, wastewater drug monitoring, household environmental behaviour and business succession intentions.

Taken together, the releases are the kind of week that matters to policymakers on multiple files at once: immigration planning, wage and inflation watching, drug-harm response and small-business transition. Below is what each release actually said, and where the numbers are strongest and weakest.

Population Growth Slows to Its Weakest Rate Since 1915/1916

Canada’s population reached an estimated 41,798,407 people on July 1, 2026, an increase of 189,425 people, or 0.5%, from July 1, 2025. In percentage terms, that is the slowest annual growth since 1915/1916, when the population rose by roughly 20,000 people, or 0.3%.

The slowdown is closely tied to a falling non-permanent resident population. The number of non-permanent residents dropped by 154,614 people on a July-to-July basis in 2025/2026, landing at 2,779,774 on July 1, 2026 — equal to 6.7% of the total population.

The same release put the median age in Canada at 40.9 years and the average age at 42.1 years as of July 1, 2026. An older population combined with sharply reduced temporary migration is the single most consequential structural signal in the week’s data, because it feeds directly into labour supply, housing demand and public-service planning.

Average Weekly Earnings Reach $1,347 as Job Vacancies Stay Flat

Average weekly earnings were $1,347 in July 2026, up 3.2% year over year, following a 3.4% year-over-year increase in June. The number of employees receiving pay and benefits from their employer rose by 26,100 (+0.1%) in July, after three consecutive monthly gains from March to June that totalled 124,200 (+0.7%).

On a year-over-year basis, payroll employment was up 171,900 positions, or 0.9%. Job vacancies stood at 501,000 in July, the seventh consecutive month of little variation — a picture of a labour market that is neither tightening sharply nor deteriorating.

Wage growth in the low-3% range is the number markets tend to read most closely, since it sits alongside inflation in the central bank’s calculations. Traders have already been split on the next policy move, as reflected in how odds of a Bank of Canada rate decision have swung to a coin flip heading into late October.

23.2% of Households Live in Unaffordable Housing, and Mortgage Holders Are Souring Fastest

In 2024, 23.2% of Canadian households lived in housing that was unaffordable to them, up from 22.0% in 2022. Renters were far more exposed than owners: 33.7% of renters were in unaffordable housing, compared with 17.4% of owners.

The more striking movement was in reported dissatisfaction. Homeowners with a mortgage posted the sharpest increase in dissatisfaction with housing affordability, rising to 28.2% — effectively the same level as households in market rental housing at 28.9%. That convergence matters because renters have historically reported much higher dissatisfaction than mortgage holders.

  • Owners overall: 17.4% in unaffordable housing in 2024.
  • Renters overall: 33.7% in unaffordable housing in 2024.
  • Mortgage holders’ dissatisfaction: up to 28.2%, near the 28.9% recorded among market renters.

Wastewater Monitoring Flags Prairie Methamphetamine Levels and Falling Metro Vancouver Fentanyl

From January 2024 to March 2026, Metro Vancouver consistently recorded the highest fentanyl levels among all monitored cities, measured through the norfentanyl metabolite in municipal wastewater. Measured average fentanyl levels there were, however, lower in 2025 and early 2026 than in 2024.

Over the same period, measured methamphetamine levels were among the highest in cities in the Prairie provinces — a reminder that stimulants, not only opioids, drive substance-related harm in parts of the country. Statistics Canada noted that fentanyl remains central to Canada’s overdose crisis, being involved in 56% of opioid-related deaths in 2025.

Wastewater testing measures population-level consumption signals rather than individual use or overdose counts, so it is best read as a trend indicator alongside mortality and treatment data. The policy conversation around treatment access continues to move in parallel, including Canadian research linking take-home methadone timing to better survival.

Composting Rates Swing From 49% in Apartments to 96% in Prince Edward Island

New data in the September 2026 edition of Economic and Social Reports found that household composting of kitchen waste varies widely by dwelling type, length of residency and location. Detached or ground-oriented homes composted at rates of 66% to 74%, compared with 49% for apartments and flats.

Geography mattered just as much. Larger urban centres reported a 75% composting rate, while other population areas ranged from 53% to 64%. Provincially, the highest rates were in Prince Edward Island at 96% and Nova Scotia at 92%.

Category Composting rate
Detached / ground-oriented dwellings 66% to 74%
Apartments and/or flats 49%
Larger urban centres 75%
Other population areas 53% to 64%
Prince Edward Island 96%
Nova Scotia 92%

The spread points less to differing intentions than to differing infrastructure: curbside organics collection and in-unit storage space are simply not equal across dwelling types. That has practical implications for municipalities setting waste-diversion targets, a theme that also runs through recent federal climate change reporting on long-term warming scenarios.

One in Five Canadian Businesses Intends to Sell or Transfer Within 10 Years

In the third quarter of 2026, approximately 20.3% of businesses in Canada said they intend to sell or transfer ownership within the next decade. Another 42.6% said they did not intend to do so, while plans were unknown for 37.1%.

The accommodation and food services sector stood out: more than one-third of owners, 34.4%, said they intend to sell or transfer their business within 10 years — the highest share among sectors measured. The agency framed the open question as how many of those intentions will actually result in a change of hands.

For advisers, lenders and franchise operators, a large intention pool concentrated in hospitality signals sustained deal flow and valuation pressure in a sector already sensitive to labour costs and consumer discretionary spending.

How to Read This Week’s Statistics Canada Research Findings

Each figure in the roundup comes from a separate release with its own reference period, and the periods do not line up. Population estimates are as of July 1, 2026; payroll and vacancy figures cover July 2026; housing affordability data refer to 2024; wastewater results span January 2024 to March 2026; and business succession intentions are from the third quarter of 2026.

That matters when the numbers are quoted side by side. The housing affordability share, for example, describes conditions two years before the population estimate, and intentions data measure what owners say they plan to do rather than completed transactions. Readers comparing these indicators should treat them as separate snapshots rather than a single synchronized portrait.

Statistics Canada directs detailed questions on any of the releases to its Statistical Information Service, and the underlying tables and reports for each item are published individually rather than only in the weekly summary.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Canada’s population growth the slowest since 1915/1916?
The weekly review attributes the 0.5% annual increase in part to a drop of 154,614 non-permanent residents on a July-to-July basis in 2025/2026, leaving that group at 2,779,774 people, or 6.7% of the population.

Does the $1,347 average weekly earnings figure represent take-home pay?
It is average weekly earnings for employees receiving pay and benefits from an employer in July 2026, up 3.2% year over year. The release does not break it out as after-tax or take-home pay.

What does wastewater testing actually measure?
It measures drug metabolites present in municipal wastewater — for fentanyl, the norfentanyl metabolite — which indicates population-level consumption trends in monitored cities. It is not a count of individual users or of overdose deaths.

Are the composting figures about willingness or access?
The release reports rates by dwelling type, length of residency and location, showing 49% for apartments and flats versus 66% to 74% for detached or ground-oriented homes. It reports the variation without assigning a single cause.

Will one in five Canadian businesses actually change hands?
Statistics Canada explicitly framed that as an open question. The 20.3% figure reflects stated intention over the next 10 years, not confirmed sales.

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The Brand Magazine Newsroom covers Canadian business, markets and policy news for brand builders and entrepreneurs. Newsroom reports are produced from published public sources such as company releases and government and regulator publications, and follow our Editorial Standards.

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