Inside the fight over how the Conservatives picked their Brantford candidate — and why senior party figures see this single Ontario seat as a test of Pierre Poilievre's leadership.
The coming Brantford byelection has turned into an internal Conservative argument before a single vote has been cast. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre used the party’s rules to appoint Brantford Mayor Kevin Davis as the candidate in the yet-to-be-called federal contest in Brantford-Brant South-Six Nations, Ont., bypassing the nomination election that local organizers had spent weeks preparing for.
The decision, announced at a Sept. 20 rally attended by roughly 2,000 people, prompted former Conservative MP Phil McColeman to walk out — and to say publicly that he will not campaign for the party’s own candidate. McColeman, who held the seat from 2008 to 2021, told reporters the race was already going to be difficult given Prime Minister Mark Carney’s standing with voters, and that the appointment has made it harder still.
Why McColeman Calls the Appointment “Really the Gut Punch”
McColeman said he had warned Poilievre roughly a week and a half before the rally not to appoint a candidate, urging instead a contested nomination that would let members choose. He said he offered the advice after hearing rumours an appointment was under consideration.
His objection, he stressed, is procedural rather than personal. “There’s this Liberal love affair going on with Mark Carney, and it’s going to be a tough election, no matter who the candidate is,” he said, describing grassroots members as having been told, in effect, that the leadership knows better after 18 years of local organizing. That sense of being sidelined — not Davis’s own record — is what he called the gut punch.
McColeman also argued that Brantford is not a “naturally Conservative” riding. Unlike seats where the leader and the party brand carry the day, he said, candidates there have historically had to build a personal local brand. He pointed to 2015, a campaign he described as an anti-Harper wave, when voters at the door told him they disliked the leader but were voting for him anyway.
How Kevin Davis Was Named at the Sept. 20 Rally
Davis is a two-term mayor of Brantford who is not seeking re-election municipally. In the most recent municipal race, he won by a margin of a little more than 200 votes.
His appointment came at the expense of Pastor Dave Carrol, who had been endorsed by both McColeman and outgoing MP Larry Brock. Brock recorded a video endorsement the day before the rally, saying he was handing the baton to Carrol and describing him as a candidate rooted in “faith, family, and freedom” who would prioritize affordability, workers, businesses and community safety. Carrol had volunteered in the riding alongside McColeman and Brock since 2008.
Carrol’s Public Response After Six Weeks of Nomination Prep
Carrol posted a message on Facebook after the announcement saying his team had spent about six weeks preparing for a nomination contest that never happened. “One candidate has been appointed rather than selected through the nomination contest that so many of us had been preparing for,” he wrote, adding that he wished Davis well but would be dishonest to claim he was not deeply disappointed.
The Party’s Case: Getting a Candidate Ready Before Carney Calls the Vote
Conservative Party director of communications Sarah Fischer said the appointment was a readiness decision, made on the assumption the Liberals could call the byelection quickly. The party, she said, exercised its authority under internal rules to select Davis so a candidate would be in place and able to hit the ground running.
Fischer also pushed back on the idea that local Conservatives were shut out, listing endorsements from riding association president Caine Chapman, Brock’s former campaign manager Phil Gillies, nomination competitor Josh Wall, and two candidates for mayor. She described Davis as an “outstanding” candidate with deep roots in the riding who is focused on a safer and more affordable future for residents.
Larry Brock’s Resignation and the Seat He Leaves Behind
The vacancy opened on Sept. 18, when Brock resigned his House of Commons seat to return to his former role as an assistant Crown attorney. He had won the riding in the last general election by 11 percentage points, or 7,469 votes.
| Riding | Brantford-Brant South-Six Nations, Ont. |
| Seat vacated | Sept. 18, 2026, by Larry Brock (Conservative) |
| Last result | Conservative hold by 11 points / 7,469 votes |
| Conservative candidate | Kevin Davis, appointed Sept. 20, 2026 |
| Liberal candidate of record | Joy O’Donnell (nomination not yet decided) |
| Byelection date | Not yet called |
A Seat That Has Changed Hands Before: NDP 1971, Liberal 1993, Conservative 2008
The riding’s history is the core of McColeman’s argument. The NDP held the area from 1971 to 1993 — including through the two consecutive Progressive Conservative majorities won under Brian Mulroney beginning in 1984. The Liberals then took it in 1993 and held it until 2008, when McColeman broke four decades of NDP and Liberal representation.
That record cuts both ways. It shows the seat is winnable for the Conservatives even in poor national years, since McColeman held on through the 2015 Liberal sweep. It also shows the seat has never been safe, which is why local organizers argue candidate selection matters more here than in strongholds.
Why Senior Conservatives Compare Brantford to Toronto–St. Paul’s
Within the party, the stakes are being framed in leadership terms. Some Conservatives draw a direct parallel to the 2024 Toronto–St. Paul’s byelection, when the Liberals lost a longtime stronghold and the defeat sharpened caucus anxiety about Justin Trudeau’s leadership and the party’s prospects.
The worry now runs in the opposite direction. Brantford has been Conservative since 2008, and a loss there would invite questions about the party’s grip on other seats it considers reliable. Senior Conservatives quoted in the reporting expect Carney to call the byelection as early as he can in order to capitalize on his current standing — a calculation consistent with how the Liberals have been reading their own momentum across other files, from the government’s strategic autonomy push at the United Nations to Carney’s handling of the Canada-U.S. file.
The Byelection Scoreboard Since the 2025 General Election
The context that makes Brantford uncomfortable for the Conservatives is the run of results behind it. Since the 2025 general election there have been seven byelections, and the Official Opposition has won only one:
- Battle River–Crowfoot, Alta.: Conservative win in one of the safest ridings in the country, where Poilievre ran after losing his Ottawa-area seat of Carleton.
- Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Que.: lost on Aug. 31, a seat the Conservatives had held since 2018.
- The remaining contests: no Conservative gains, leaving the party without a competitive byelection win outside its safest territory.
For a party watching its polling numbers fall, another loss in a seat it has held for nearly two decades would become an internal pressure point rather than a routine defeat. The same dynamic is playing out in provincial races this season, including the closing stretch of the Quebec election campaign, where leaders are testing how far national mood carries into local contests.
How Conservative and Liberal Nomination Rules Actually Differ
The procedural detail matters here because it defines what each leader can and cannot do. Conservative Party rules permit the leader to appoint up to eight candidates, with the remainder chosen through nomination elections. The Liberal Party imposes no cap on leader appointments.
In practice, the Liberals have used that latitude more freely. Since the last federal election, the party has nominated candidates without a contest in six of seven byelections. The single exception was Beaches–East York, where outgoing MP Nate Erskine-Smith obtained a commitment from the prime minister, before stepping down, that his successor would be chosen through a nomination contest.
Joy O’Donnell’s Paperwork Is In, but the Liberals Are Not Saying How They’ll Choose
Businesswoman Joy O’Donnell, who carried the Liberal banner in the riding in 2025, is the party’s candidate of record and says she has submitted her nomination package and received confirmation the paperwork is in order. On her information, she is the only person currently seeking the Liberal nomination, and she does not know when a nomination meeting will be called.
O’Donnell says she never stopped campaigning after the last election and stepped up door-knocking after Brock announced his departure six weeks ago. With residents repeatedly asking whether she would run again, she took out a full-page ad in the local newspaper announcing her intention to seek the nomination. “I am preparing for nomination meeting, I am ready to go,” she said, adding that her team is ready whenever the meeting is called.
Liberal spokeswoman Maggie Morris would not say whether the party will hold a contest or appoint. “There’s nothing to announce at this time,” she said, adding that nominations in Brantford–Brant South and other ridings will move forward under the party’s rules in due time. The Conservative controversy has, however, added a measure of public pressure on the Liberals to run a contested process rather than hand the seat to a chosen candidate.
What Voters in the Riding Will Be Weighing
Beyond the party machinery, the substantive themes both sides have signalled are local and economic: affordability, support for families, workers and small businesses, and community safety. Those pressures are not unique to Brantford — household cost concerns remain a national story, including the shifting outlook on borrowing costs ahead of the Bank of Canada’s next rate decision — but they are the terrain on which a manufacturing-belt Ontario seat is usually decided.
The byelection has not yet been called, and no date has been set. Until the writ drops, the open questions are whether McColeman’s boycott spreads among longtime volunteers, and whether the Liberals answer the appointment controversy with a nomination meeting of their own.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will the Brantford byelection be held?
No date has been set. The seat became vacant on Sept. 18, 2026, and the byelection has not yet been called.
Can a party leader simply appoint a candidate?
Yes, within party rules. Conservative rules allow the leader to appoint up to eight candidates; the Liberal Party sets no limit on leader appointments.
Is Phil McColeman leaving the Conservative Party?
Nothing in his comments indicates that. He said only that, as things stand, he will not campaign for Kevin Davis, and that his objection is to the appointment process rather than to Davis personally.
Who are the confirmed candidates so far?
Kevin Davis is the appointed Conservative candidate. Joy O’Donnell is the Liberal candidate of record and has submitted a nomination package, but the Liberals have not confirmed how or when they will select their candidate. Other parties’ candidates are not mentioned.
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