A closer look at the guidance ranges, division-level targets and valuation questions that will decide how the Waterloo software company's quarter is received.
BlackBerry Q2 results are due on September 24, when the Waterloo, Ontario software company reports on its fiscal 2027 second quarter, the three months ended August 31, 2026. It is the first full look at the business since a first quarter in which both of its operating engines — the QNX embedded software division and the Secure Communications unit — posted double-digit revenue growth.
Management has guided to revenue of $137 million to $148 million and non-GAAP earnings of 3 to 4 cents per share. Analyst consensus sits near the top of that range, at roughly $143 million in revenue and 4 cents per share, a figure that has been unchanged for the past 60 days. The company has exceeded consensus in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 94.6 per cent.
The Guidance Ranges BlackBerry Set for Itself
BlackBerry issues division-level targets alongside its consolidated outlook, which makes this report unusually easy to grade line by line. The table below summarises what the company told investors to expect for the quarter.
| Metric | Company guidance |
|---|---|
| Total revenue | $137M – $148M |
| Non-GAAP EPS | 3 – 4 cents |
| QNX revenue | $70M – $75M |
| QNX adjusted EBITDA | $16M – $21M |
| Secure Communications revenue | $57M – $63M |
| Secure Communications adjusted EBITDA | $5M – $10M |
| Licensing revenue | Approximately $10M |
| Total adjusted EBITDA | $20M – $30M |
| Operating cash flow | Breakeven to $10M |
The licensing figure is worth flagging: BlackBerry raised its second-quarter expectation to roughly $10 million, well ahead of the $6.6 million reported in the same quarter a year earlier.
Why QNX Is the First Number Analysts Will Check
QNX, the real-time operating system embedded in vehicle systems worldwide, has become the division that sets the tone for the whole company. In the most recently reported quarter, QNX revenue climbed 26 per cent year over year to $72 million, with strength spread across development licences, professional services and royalties.
Development-licence revenue reached its highest level in eight quarters. That line matters more than its size suggests, because it functions as a leading indicator: automakers and suppliers buy development licences years before a vehicle programme reaches production and starts generating royalties. Management has tied much of that activity to its SDP 8 architecture, framing it as multi-year revenue visibility rather than a one-quarter bump.
The growth drivers management points to are familiar to anyone tracking the auto sector’s software shift — software-defined vehicles, centralised compute architectures, digital cockpits and advanced driver assistance systems. The caveat is equally familiar. QNX remains tied to vehicle production cycles and original equipment manufacturer spending, both of which move with the broader economy.
Hailo-8, Momenta and the Push Beyond Automotive
BlackBerry has been widening QNX’s addressable market beyond cars, and two recent announcements give investors something concrete to weigh against the automotive cycle.
- Hailo-8 support: In August, QNX announced support for the Hailo-8 AI accelerator on QNX SDP 8.0, broadening the hardware options for customers building AI-powered edge systems.
- Momenta and XHEART: QNX OS for Safety, built on SDP 8.0, was selected by Physical AI company Momenta and by XHEART as the operating-system foundation for an autonomous driving platform.
- General Embedded Markets: The company describes this as a fast-growing opportunity extending QNX into robotics, industrial automation and medical devices.
These are early-stage opportunities. Design wins and backlog typically arrive well before royalty revenue builds to a meaningful scale, so investors expecting an immediate revenue contribution from Physical AI will likely be waiting several reporting cycles.
Alloy Kore and the Design Win Management Has Promised
Alloy Kore is the platform BlackBerry has positioned as its biggest potential step-change in automotive software content. Management expects it to increase software content per vehicle substantially, lift average selling price by multiples and drive backlog growth.
The commitment executives have made publicly is to secure a design win within the current fiscal year. Whether that timeline is reiterated, refined or quietly pushed out on the September 24 call is one of the few genuinely binary questions in this report.
Secure Communications After the Shared Services Canada Extension
The Secure Communications division grew revenue 24 per cent year over year to $74 million in the last reported quarter, anchored by government demand, recurring revenue and customer retention. Rising government interest in digital sovereignty and cybersecurity modernisation has been a consistent tailwind — a theme running through much of the Canadian regulatory and public-sector agenda this year, including OSFI’s recent quarterly release covering capital, crypto and AI rules.
Management has been unusually direct about not extrapolating that result. Large government transactions carry long sales cycles and do not land every quarter. The first-quarter figure benefited materially from the expansion and multi-year extension of BlackBerry’s agreement with Shared Services Canada, and guidance of $57 million to $63 million for the second quarter reflects that.
The underlying subscription metrics suggest a stable base rather than a shrinking one. Annual recurring revenue grew more than 5 per cent to $220 million, with a dollar-based net retention rate of 92 per cent.
The Margin Math Behind Adjusted EBITDA of $20M to $30M
Revenue mix, more than revenue volume, will determine whether BlackBerry hits its profitability targets. QNX adjusted gross margin reached 86 per cent in the fiscal first quarter, and management has repeatedly noted that royalties carry high incremental margins.
The argument is straightforward: as the royalty share of QNX revenue rises relative to services and licences, margin expansion, operating leverage and cash generation should follow. The second-quarter test is whether adjusted EBITDA lands inside the $20 million to $30 million band while operating cash flow stays at or above breakeven.
A 157% Six-Month Run and What It Did to the Valuation
BlackBerry shares have risen 157 per cent over the past six months, far outpacing the 19 per cent gain in the Internet Software industry. The broader Computer and Technology sector advanced 26.2 per cent and the S&P 500 gained 16 per cent over the same stretch — a period in which Canadian equities also performed strongly, with the S&P/TSX Composite recently posting a 1.08 per cent single-day jump.
That run has reset the valuation. BlackBerry trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 42.23, above the industry’s 29.2. For general market context, comparable forward multiples cited for other names in adjacent markets range widely: Aptiv at 6.89 times, Palo Alto Networks at 86.75 times and CrowdStrike at 167.85 times. Over the same six months, CrowdStrike gained 141.4 per cent and Palo Alto Networks 126.7 per cent, while Aptiv fell 38.6 per cent.
Where BlackBerry Sits Against Wind River and Android Automotive
Competitive pressure runs through both halves of the business. In embedded automotive software, QNX operates alongside Aptiv’s Wind River (VxWorks) and Alphabet’s Android Automotive OS. In cybersecurity and secure communications, BlackBerry competes in a crowded field that includes CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks among many others.
None of that is new, but it shapes how the market reads a beat. With a premium multiple already in the price, the report will likely be judged on division-level execution and forward commentary rather than on whether the consensus number is cleared by a cent.
For readers tracking Canadian corporate results this season, BlackBerry joins a run of closely watched quarters that has already included BRP’s second-quarter revenue and net loss figures.
This article reports publicly disclosed guidance and analyst estimates for information purposes. Estimates are not results, and nothing here is investment advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
When exactly does BlackBerry report its fiscal second-quarter results?
September 24, 2026, covering the fiscal second quarter ended August 31, 2026.
What revenue and earnings is the company guiding to?
Revenue of $137 million to $148 million and non-GAAP earnings per share of 3 to 4 cents.
How does that compare with analyst expectations?
Consensus sits at roughly $143 million in revenue and 4 cents per share, near the upper end of guidance.
Which division contributes more revenue right now?
In the most recently reported quarter the two were close — QNX at $72 million and Secure Communications at $74 million — but second-quarter guidance puts QNX ahead, at $70 million to $75 million versus $57 million to $63 million.
What is Alloy Kore and why does it keep coming up?
It is BlackBerry’s platform aimed at increasing software content per vehicle and raising average selling price; management has said it expects a first design win within the current fiscal year.
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