Two new think-tank reports put numbers on what it would actually take to turn Ottawa's trillion-dollar investment ambition into steel, concrete and electrons.
Canada megaprojects are heading into their decisive year, and two new think-tank reports released on September 9, 2026 argue that the country’s ability to build them will be settled less by announcements than by two unglamorous variables: who has the final say over project approvals, and whether there are enough skilled trades workers to pour the concrete.
The timing is deliberate. Prime Minister Mark Carney is preparing to host the world’s largest banks and financial institutions at the Canada Investment Summit in Toronto on September 14 and 15, while his cabinet gathers in Banff, Alberta for a two-day fall planning forum under the mission statement of “building with greater speed and ambition.” All of it is unfolding during an escalating trade war with the United States.
CD Howe’s “Clear the Way” Report Questions the $1-Trillion Target
The first report, Clear the Way: Does the Building Canada Act Help Canada Build?, comes from the CD Howe Institute, a business-focused think tank. Its central contention is blunt: the federal government’s stated “commitment to move faster” on major projects will not, on its own, secure the $1 trillion in capital Ottawa wants to attract by 2031.
What is missing, the authors argue, is the kind of regulatory architecture that long-horizon investors need before they commit to nation-building infrastructure intended to reindustrialize the economy.
“Canada’s renewed focus on building major projects is welcome, but investors willing to invest in long-term projects need to know what rules apply, who ultimately decides whether a project proceeds, and whether an approval will endure through political change,” Kate Koplovich, senior policy analyst at CD Howe, told Canada’s National Observer.
“More Predictable, Less Political”: What the Report Asks Ottawa to Change
George Vegh, a senior fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy and a co-author of the report, framed the issue as one of investor confidence rather than ambition.
“The next step is creating a more predictable, less political regulatory process that gives investors the confidence to commit to the major projects Canada needs to strengthen investment and productivity,” Vegh said.
The report’s recommendations are specific:
- Give expert regulators final say: approval decisions should rest with technical regulators rather than being subject to political discretion.
- Simplify project reviews: narrow open-ended review criteria that leave outcomes uncertain.
- Enforce statutory time limits: make legislated deadlines binding rather than aspirational.
Those changes, the authors say, would strengthen the federal Major Projects Office, which currently oversees 27 projects representing a combined $192 billion in investment and 330,000 jobs. As structured today, the office remains exposed to political discretion and open-ended review criteria, according to the report.
Vegh acknowledged that progress has been made. “Canada has made progress in shortening some approval timelines through administrative improvements, but more work remains,” he said.
6.3 Million Job-Years: The Building Trades Math Behind Net Zero
Regulatory certainty is only half the equation. A separate report, Jobs for Today: Canada’s Building Trades and the Net-Zero Transition, tackles the constraint that money cannot solve quickly — labour.
Meeting Canada’s stated net-zero commitments by 2050 would require between 6.3 million and 9.5 million job-years of construction work, the report calculates, alongside a permanent employee base of roughly 350,000 workers dedicated to the build-out.
The gap is not theoretical. Meeting the emissions-reduction pledges Canada made under the 2015 Paris Agreement — targets the country is currently off-track to achieve — would require a 20 to 30 per cent increase in the national construction workforce. That, the report projects, far exceeds the sector’s current head-count. Readers following the physical-risk side of that same equation will recall that Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026 concluded that a degree of warming is now irreversible, sharpening the case for building adaptation and clean-power infrastructure at speed.
The $70-Billion Quebec–Newfoundland Deal as a Working Template
The report’s authors point to last month’s $70-billion clean energy agreement between Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador — described as the largest ever signed in the North American clean energy industry — as a live demonstration of what projects at this scale can deliver.
The megaproject would involve development of roughly 14,000 megawatts of renewable generation plus hundreds of kilometres of transmission lines. Government estimates cited in the report project 23,000 jobs and $31 billion added to GDP by the early 2040s, with an impact the authors say reaches “far beyond clean power.”
“[The deal] will create far more jobs for construction and trades workers, and have a longer impact on Canada’s economy and environment, than any [oil and gas] pipeline,” said Jim Stanford, director of the Centre for Future Work and one of the report’s authors.
“It is concrete proof that accelerating renewable energy will usher in an employment boom unlike any we have experienced before,” he said.
Banff, 26,000 Submissions and a “Monumental Task”
On the same day the think-tank reports landed, Ottawa launched Proposals for Getting Major Projects Built in Canada, an intelligence-gathering document drawing on more than 26,000 submissions. Of those, more than 400 came from Indigenous peoples and industry, academia, and provincial, territorial and municipal governments, according to the federal release.
Federal ministers meeting in Banff for their annual fall planning forum have set out to build “with greater speed and ambition.” But the sheer scope of the potential energy infrastructure build-out underlines how demanding that commitment is. Doubling Canada’s grid capacity by 2050 — a goal of the government’s national electricity strategy — is “a monumental task,” Stanford said.
“This is what nation-building looks like,” said Lee Loftus, a report co-author from the Climate Industry Research Team. “Canada cannot achieve energy security, economic resilience or its climate objectives without building substantially more clean electricity and the infrastructure required to move that electricity.”
Loftus added that the capital side and the human side have to move together: “Canada must match its investment in infrastructure with an equally serious investment in skilled trades training, apprenticeships, recruitment and retention.”
Tariffs, Cleantech Exports and the Case for a Domestic Market
The build-out debate is playing out against a trade conflict that is already reshaping Canadian industrial costs and export planning. Input pricing has become a live variable for anyone modelling construction budgets, with Canadian tariffs on construction materials now in force and Ottawa’s counter-measures widening in scope.
For clean-technology manufacturers, the bigger problem is unpredictability rather than any single tariff line. “Trump’s erratic trade policies are causing uncertainty around future exports to the US, including exports of clean-energy technology,” Stanford told Canada’s National Observer.
His counter-argument is that a domestic pipeline of projects could absorb that capacity. “But at the same time, if the federal government puts priority on clean energy in its overall national economic strategy, there will be ample opportunities for those industries right here at home,” he said.
That reasoning sits alongside a cautious macroeconomic backdrop. The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25 per cent amid tariff and oil uncertainty reflects the same unresolved question facing ministers in Banff: how much real activity the current wave of commitments will generate.
Canada Megaprojects by the Numbers
| Measure | Figure cited |
|---|---|
| Capital Ottawa aims to attract by 2031 | $1 trillion |
| Projects overseen by the Major Projects Office | 27 projects |
| Combined investment value of those projects | $192 billion |
| Jobs associated with that portfolio | 330,000 |
| Construction work required for net zero by 2050 | 6.3 million to 9.5 million job-years |
| Permanent workforce required | Approximately 350,000 workers |
| Workforce increase needed for Paris pledges | 20 to 30 per cent |
| Quebec–Newfoundland and Labrador deal value | $70 billion |
| Renewable generation in that deal | About 14,000 megawatts |
| Projected jobs and GDP from the deal | 23,000 jobs; $31 billion by the early 2040s |
| Submissions to Ottawa’s major projects consultation | More than 26,000 |
All figures above are as reported in the two think-tank reports and the federal consultation document; project-level jobs and GDP estimates are government projections rather than realized outcomes.
The Conversion Problem Facing Investors in Toronto
For the ministers meeting this week and the global investors arriving in Toronto on September 14 and 15, the reports frame a single test. The question is no longer whether Canada can attract interest in multi-billion-dollar projects, but whether pledged capital can be converted into steel, concrete and electrons at the pace the timelines assume — and whether that can be done while the tariff war continues to test the country’s economic resilience.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Building Canada Act being assessed for?
The CD Howe report examines whether the Act actually helps projects get built, concluding that reforms to decision-making authority, review scope and statutory timelines are still needed.
How many projects does the Major Projects Office currently oversee?
Twenty-seven projects, worth a combined $192 billion in investment and associated with 330,000 jobs.
What does a “job-year” mean in the workforce estimate?
It represents one year of full-time work for one worker, which is why the 6.3 to 9.5 million job-year range translates into a much smaller permanent workforce of roughly 350,000.
Is Canada on track for its Paris Agreement targets?
No. The report states Canada is currently off-track, and meeting those pledges would require a 20 to 30 per cent larger national construction workforce than exists today.
When and where is the Canada Investment Summit?
It takes place in Toronto on September 14 and 15, 2026, hosted by Prime Minister Mark Carney for major banks and financial institutions.
